Democrats Can Win In Mississippi
I love a good underdog candidate. Is there a better high than when your long-shot candidate pulls off the ultimate upset? My ActBlue donation page is basically a list of underdogs - in two election cycles I’ve given to two winning candidates...a school board candidate in Fairfax County and Jon Tester. Earlier this week, I added another candidate to the list - Mike Espy from Mississippi.
Is there a bigger underdog than a Democrat, running for statewide office, in Mississippi?
The last Democrat to win Mississippi was Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1968 the state gave its electoral votes to George Wallace. Barry Goldwater carried every county in Mississippi in 1964. It hasn’t been a traditionally Democratic state at the national level since the 1950s, and its last Democratic senators were segregationist conservatives.
Folks - despite the history - we can win the Senate runoff in Mississippi.
High Floor, Low Ceiling
Live Shot of the Democratic Vote in Mississippi
On election night, most Democrats can count on around 40 percent of the Mississippi vote share. The lone exception in the past 10 years is Robert Gray, a long-haul truck driver who spent $7639 on his entire gubernatorial campaign and probably only won the primary because his name was listed first on the ballot.
So 40 percent is the floor...Unfortunately, 44 percent is the ceiling.
Table 1: Democratic Share of the Vote
What accounts for this vote floor? Mississippi has the highest percentage of African-American residents in the country. If Espy has a chance, he needs high African-American turnout, particularly along the Mississippi River and in Hinds County.
Mississippi Special Election Results - Politico
Foot-in-Mouth Disease and the Alabama Example
Finally, Cindy Hyde-Smith is not a great candidate. She has held elected office since 2000, but this is the first time she has faced the scrutiny of a national spotlight. First, she jokingly said she would accompany a friend to a “public hanging.” Then, she said that voter suppression laws which make it harder for college students to vote are “a great idea.”
She realizes that there are campaign trackers, right? Or that people can record video on their phone and upload it to the internet?
Recent history shows that a good Democrat in a crimson red Southern state with a flawed opponent can win a Senate seat. I must provide the caveat that Senator Hyde-Smith is not as damaged as Roy Moore. For one, she’s probably allowed to enter local shopping malls. She has not been removed from office - twice - for defying the Constitution. That said, she is not a great candidate, and her foot-in-mouth disease may end up costing her this election.
What’s Coming Up?
The runoff election is only a week away, so keep watching this space for updates on what metrics to watch and an election night dashboard!