Mississippi Runoff: What to Watch

I propose we build a Museum of Bad Candidates. The permanent exhibit will include people like Roy Moore and David Duke. It will feature Alvin Greene from South Carolina, who proposed building Alvin Greene action figures to stimulate the economy. There are some truly amazing horrible candidates in American history.

I don’t think Cindy Hyde-Smith belongs in the permanent exhibit...maybe a temporary exhibit...The Not Ready for Prime Time Candidates.

Today is runoff election day - otherwise known as the greatest holiday between Election Day and Christmas. Cindy Hyde-Smith will probably win tonight, but this feels like a real race. In my previous post, I outlined why Mike Espy has a shot at winning. In this post, I will outline how he can do it.

African American Turnout

In Mississippi, the African American vote is the Democratic vote. African Americans represent nearly 38 percent of the Mississippi population - the largest share in the country. Not surprisingly, Democratic strongholds in the state are also counties with large African American population - namely along the Mississippi River, in Jackson, and in the eastern portion of the state.

It may be hard for Espy to improve on his overall vote-share in these counties, Democrats gain anywhere from 55 to 80 percent of the vote here. Turnout, however, must be high for Espy to have a chance tonight.

Mike Espy must garner about 25 percent of the white vote to win the election. To measure this, keep your eyes on Tishomingo, Rankin, and Harrison counties. These counties are representative of the GOP strongholds in rural, suburban, and urban counties.

Unfortunately, Mississippi does not provide information on registered voters. To calculate turnout, I am comparing the number of votes in tonight's runoff to the number of votes cast in the general election. While not perfect, this metric will give us an idea of which areas are turning out in greater numbers.

The Wildcard - Chris McDaniel

Chris McDaniel is a lot like Corey Stewart. He’s a right-wing extremist opposed to immigrant rights, women's rights, and LGBT rights. His 2018 campaign centered on preserving Confederate iconography. Perhaps the biggest difference between the two men is that McDaniel was actually born in the South. Also, much like Corey Stewart, McDaniel does not play nice with his fellow Republicans.

Orange - McDaniel Plurality Lead
Green - McDaniel Trailed
Made with mapchart.net

Will his supporters turn out for Cindy Hyde-Smith? McDaniel’s outpaced Cindy Hyde-Smith in Jones and Greene Counties.

Both are GOP strongholds. If GOP turnout drops here, especially in Jones County, Hyde-Smith may be in for a bad night.

Democrats Can Win In Mississippi

I love a good underdog candidate. Is there a better high than when your long-shot candidate pulls off the ultimate upset? My ActBlue donation page is basically a list of underdogs - in two election cycles I’ve given to two winning candidates...a school board candidate in Fairfax County and Jon Tester. Earlier this week, I added another candidate to the list - Mike Espy from Mississippi.

Is there a bigger underdog than a Democrat, running for statewide office, in Mississippi?

The last Democrat to win Mississippi was Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1968 the state gave its electoral votes to George Wallace. Barry Goldwater carried every county in Mississippi in 1964. It hasn’t been a traditionally Democratic state at the national level since the 1950s, and its last Democratic senators were segregationist conservatives.

Folks - despite the history - we can win the Senate runoff in Mississippi.

High Floor, Low Ceiling

Live Shot of the Democratic Vote in Mississippi

On election night, most Democrats can count on around 40 percent of the Mississippi vote share. The lone exception in the past 10 years is Robert Gray, a long-haul truck driver who spent $7639 on his entire gubernatorial campaign and probably only won the primary because his name was listed first on the ballot.

So 40 percent is the floor...Unfortunately, 44 percent is the ceiling.

Table 1: Democratic Share of the Vote

What accounts for this vote floor? Mississippi has the highest percentage of African-American residents in the country. If Espy has a chance, he needs high African-American turnout, particularly along the Mississippi River and in Hinds County.

Mississippi Special Election Results - Politico

Foot-in-Mouth Disease and the Alabama Example

Finally, Cindy Hyde-Smith is not a great candidate. She has held elected office since 2000, but this is the first time she has faced the scrutiny of a national spotlight. First, she jokingly said she would accompany a friend to a “public hanging.” Then, she said that voter suppression laws which make it harder for college students to vote are “a great idea.”

She realizes that there are campaign trackers, right? Or that people can record video on their phone and upload it to the internet?

Recent history shows that a good Democrat in a crimson red Southern state with a flawed opponent can win a Senate seat. I must provide the caveat that Senator Hyde-Smith is not as damaged as Roy Moore. For one, she’s probably allowed to enter local shopping malls. She has not been removed from office -  twice - for defying the Constitution. That said, she is not a great candidate, and her foot-in-mouth disease may end up costing her this election.

What’s Coming Up?

The runoff election is only a week away, so keep watching this space for updates on what metrics to watch and an election night dashboard!

Virginia Election Thread

8:17pm: And now it's officially over. Look for some visualizations in the next few hours...unless I go to bed. Being sick sucks.

8:04pm: Know why it's a good night for Democrats? Northam is ahead in Virginia Beach.

7:50pm: Northam has pulled ahead and they've barely counted anything in Fairfax or Richmond. Nothing counted in Norfolk. This is over, folks. Gillespie is getting the margins he needs in rural VA but not the turnout.

7:00pm:

via GIPHY

6:50pm - Settling in, listening to "Naked and Famous", trying not to get excited about the fantastic turnout reports in Fairfax/Arlington and middling turnout reports in rural VA.

5:53pm - Okay ya'll, I feel like death warmed over but election results wait for no man. Will Ed Gillespie's despicably racist ad campaign turn out the Trumpists? What will a days worth of cold rain do to Northam's turnout in NOVA? Will Cliff Hyra be Robert Sarvis of 2017? We'll get our first indications in an hour when the polls close. Stay tuned.